Weekly Climate and Energy News Roundup #621 (2024)

The Week That Was: 2024 11-23 (November 23, 2024)
Brought to You by SEPP (www.SEPP.org)
The Science and Environmental Policy Project

Quote of the Week: “”The important thing is not to stop questioning; curiosity has its own reason for existing. One cannot help but be in awe when contemplating the mysteries of eternity, of life, of the marvelous structure of reality. It is enough if one tries merely to comprehend a little of the mystery every day. The important thing is not to stop questioning; never lose a holy curiosity.” – Albert Einstein (from statement to William Miller, as quoted in LIFE magazine (May 2, 1955))

Number of the Week: 14 Drilling Records

THIS WEEK:

By Ken Haapala, President, Science and Environmental Policy Project (SEPP)

Scope: This Week begins with Richard Lindzen’s discussion on recent political movements that falsely claim to be based on science. Vijay Jayaraj discusses a conference of important nations that the legacy media missed, or misrepresented. Delancyplace.com discusses a few issues in Fooled by Randomness by Nassim Nicholas Taleb. Roy Spencer and John Christy discuss corrections needed to the measurements by satellites when the satellites drift too far from the planned orbit. Owen Klinsky alerts the US to the Winter Reliability Assessment by North American Electric Reliability Corporation (NERC). Roger Caiazza continues to express concern over New York’s future reliance on Dispatchable Emissions-Free Resources (DEFR), that appears imaginary. A brief discussion on a Bomb Cyclone concludes this Week.

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Rumors State: Some of the most misleading arguments for drastic action to “combat climate change” include phrases such as “The Science says.” Science says nothing; in physical science it is the physical evidence that reveals the validity of a claim. Writing in the American Mind, MIT Professor emeritus of Atmospheric Science Richard Lindzen reveals “How a political movement invented its own scientific basis.” He begins with:

“Modern political movements have frequently laid claim to being based in science, from immigration restriction and eugenics (in the U.S. after WWI), to antisemitism and race ideology (in Hitler’s Germany), to Communism and Lysenkoism (under Stalin). Each of these falsely invoked a scientific consensus that convinced highly educated citizens, who were nonetheless ignorant of science, to set aside the anxieties associated with their ignorance. Since all scientists supposedly agreed, there was no need for them to understand the science.

Of course, this version of “the science” is the opposite of science itself. Science is a mode of inquiry rather than a source of authority. However, the success that science achieves has earned it a measure of authority in the public’s mind. This is what politicians frequently envy and exploit.

The climate panic fits into this same pattern and, as in all the preceding cases, science is in fact irrelevant. At best, it is a distraction which has led many of us to focus on the numerous misrepresentations of science entailed in what was purely a political movement.”

Lindzen traces how the political movement began to demonize carbon dioxide, essential for photosynthesis, which creates the food required for all complex life, then asserts:

“Excited politicians, confronted by this resistance, have frantically changed their story. Rather than emphasizing small changes in their temperature metric (which, itself, is a false measure of climate), they now point to weather extremes which occur almost daily some place on earth, as proof not only of climate change but of climate change due to increasing CO2 (and now also to even more negligible contributors to the greenhouse effect like methane and nitrous oxide). Such extremes show no significant correlation with the emissions. From the political point of view, however, extremes provide convenient visuals that have more emotional impact than small temperature changes.

Birth of a Consensus

The desperation of political figures often drives them as far as to claim that climate change is an existential threat (associated with alleged “tipping points”). This despite a complete absence of theoretical or observational support, and despite the fact that official documents produced to support climate concerns (for example, the Working Group 1 reports of the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, or IPCC) never come close to substantiating these worst-case projections.

There was one exception to the obsession with warming, and that was the ozone depletion issue. However, even this issue served a purpose. When Richard Benedick, the American negotiator of the Montreal Convention which banned Freon, passed through MIT on his way back from Montreal, he gloated over his success. But he assured us that we hadn’t seen anything yet: we should wait to see what they would do with CO2. In brief, the ozone issue constituted a dry run for global warming. To be sure, the EPA’s activities still include conventional pollution control, but energy dominates.

Of course, the attraction of power is not the only thing motivating politicians. The ability to award trillions of dollars to reorient our energy sector means that there are recipients of these trillions of dollars. These recipients must share just a few percentage points of these trillions of dollars to support the campaigns of these politicians for many election cycles and guarantee the support of these politicians for the policies associated with the reorientation.”

The essay is a severe indictment of the IPCC and its collaborators who ignore the physical evidence in favor of politicized reports as found in the IPCC Summaries for Policymakers. Now in the 29^th annual meeting (COP-29), the parties to the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) are demanding trillions of dollars in payment for the imagined harm that carbon dioxide emissions from the use of fossil fuels are claimed to cause. Yet the use of fossil fuels (hydrocarbons) helped take the bulk of humanity out of dire poverty. See links under Challenging the Orthodoxy and After Paris!

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Ignoring the Other World: In the sound and fury created by COP-29, the legacy media ignored or misrepresented another international conference that may become more important than the UN conferences – the BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa, now including other nations) conference held October 22 to October 24. Vijay Jayaraj of the CO2 Coalition writes:

“Attendees of the 16th annual BRICS summit represented more than 45% of the global population and 35% of global gross domestic product and included representatives of Saudi Arabia, China, India, Brazil, and the United Arab Emirates.

At the heart of the declaration lies a fundamental truth that the Western climate industrial complex often refuses to recognize: Access to affordable and reliable energy and economic development cannot be sacrificed at the altar of ‘decarbonization’ if people are to thrive.

The BRICS leaders emphasize that their immediate goals — poverty eradication, infrastructure development, and economic expansion — require a secure and stable energy supply.”

In BRICS-16’s Kazan Declaration, the attendees recognize that the path to prosperity is not from demanding payments from others for alleged harms from carbon dioxide, but by promoting affordable and reliable energy, as it has been since the beginning of the Industrial Revolution. The environmental ills created by industrialization can be and are cleaned up and are minor compared to the ills of extreme poverty. See links under Challenging the Orthodoxy.

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Randomness: The daily blog, Delancyplace.com, was founded by Richard Vague and financed by the Governor’s Woods Foundation. It has no particular theme but produces interesting tidbits. On November 20, it covered Randomness and Reality. The piece began with:

“Today’s selection–from Fooled by Randomness by Nassim Nicholas Taleb. Randomness comes to Wall Street:

“’Reality is far more vicious than Russian roulette. First, it delivers the fatal bullet rather infrequently, like a revolver that would have hundreds, even thousands, of chambers instead of six. After a few dozen tries, one forgets about the existence of a bullet, under a numbing false sense of security. The point is dubbed in this book the black swan problem, which we cover in Chapter 7, as it is linked to the problem of induction, a problem that has kept a few thinkers awake at night. It is also related to a problem called denigration of history, as gamblers, investors, and decision-makers feel that the sorts of things that happen to others would not necessarily happen to them.

“’Second, unlike a well-defined, precise game like Russian roulette, where the risks are visible to anyone capable of multiplying and dividing by six, one does not observe the barrel of reality. Very rarely is the generator visible to the naked eye. One is thus capable of unwittingly playing Russian roulette—and calling it by some alternative ‘low risk’ name. We see the wealth being generated, never the processor, a matter that makes people lose sight of their risks, and never consider the losers. The game seems terribly easy, and we play along carelessly. Even scientists with all their sophistication in calculating probabilities cannot deliver any meaningful answer about the odds, since knowledge of these depends on our witnessing the barrel of reality—of which we generally know nothing.’”

Randomness occurs, such as an asteroid striking Earth and wiping out a whole class of life on Earth. These cannot be predicted or the causes known until after they occur. In climate history there appear to be random events that have not been explained such as the Younger Dryas, a period about 12,900 to 11,700 years ago beginning with sudden cooling and ending with sudden warming. Most life survived the Younger Dryas, a fact that is ignored by those who claim that the current slow warming will eliminate many species. See links under Challenging the Orthodoxy and Changing Seas.

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Imperfect Instruments: On November 2, Roy Spencer posted the October 2024 estimates of temperature trends which contains an explanation of a shift in calculations and why it was necessary. TWTW waited until the full Global Temperature Report for October by John Christy and Spencer was available before discussing this change. The full report is available now. Earlier Spencer wrote: [Boldface in Original]

“Key Points

• The older NOAA-19 satellite has now drifted too far through the diurnal cycle for our drift correction methodology to provide useful adjustments. Therefore, we have decided to truncate the NOAA-19 data processing starting in 2021. This leaves Metop-B as the only satellite in the UAH dataset since that date. This truncation is consistent with those made to previous satellites after orbital drift began to impact temperature measurements.

• This change reduces recent record global warmth only a little, bringing our calculated global temperatures more in line with the RSS and NOAA satellite datasets over the last 2-3 years.

• Despite the reduction in recent temperatures, the 1979-2024 trend is reduced by only 0.01 deg/ C/decade, from +0.16 C/decade to +0.15 C per decade. Recent warmth during 2023-2024 remains record-setting for the satellite era, with each month since October 2023 setting a record for that calendar month.

Background

Monitoring of global atmospheric deep-layer temperatures with satellite microwave radiometers (systems originally designed for daily global weather monitoring) has always required corrections and adjustments to the calibrated data to enable long-term trend detection. The most important of these corrections/adjustments are:

1. Satellite calibration biases, requiring intercalibration between successively launched satellites during overlaps in operational coverage. These adjustments are typically tenths of a degree C.

• Drift of the orbits from their nominal sun-synchronous observation times, requiring empirical corrections from comparison of a drifting satellite to a non-drifting satellite (the UAH method), or from climate models (the Remote Sensing Systems [RSS] method, which I believe the NOAA dataset also uses). These corrections can reach 1 deg. C or more for the lower tropospheric (LT) temperature product, especially over land and during the summer.

• Correction for instrument body temperature effects on the calibrated temperature (an issue with only the older MSU instruments, which produced spurious warming).

• Orbital altitude decay adjustment for the multi-view angle version of the lower tropospheric (LT) product. [This adjustment is] no longer needed for the UAH dataset as of V6.0, which uses multiple channels instead of multiple angles from a single channel.)

The second of these adjustments (diurnal drift) is the subject of the change made going from UAH v6.0 to v6.1. The following chart shows the equator crossing times (local solar time) for the various satellites making up the satellite temperature record. The drift of the satellites (except the non-drifting Aqua and MetOp satellites, which have fuel onboard to allow orbit maintenance) produces cooling for the afternoon satellites’ LT measurements as the afternoon observation transitions from early afternoon to evening. Drift of the morning satellites makes their LT temperatures warm as their evening observations transition to the late afternoon.”

Spencer graphically shows the drift in satellites used since 1979 with various truncations including the one for NOAA-19 and explains:

“Note that the NOAA-19 satellite has drifted further in local observation time than any of the previous afternoon satellites. The NOAA-19 local observation times have been running outside our training dataset which includes the assumption of a linear diurnal temperature drift with time. So, we have decided it is now necessary to truncate the data from NOAA-19 starting in 2021, which we are now doing as of the October 2024 update.

Thus, begins Version 6.1 of our dataset, a name change meant to reduce confusion and indicate a significant change in our processing. As seen in the above figure [not shown here], 2020 as the last year of NOAA-19 data inclusion is roughly consistent with the v6.0 cutoff times from the NOAA-18 and NOAA-14 (afternoon) satellites.

This type of change in our processing is analogous to changes we have made in previous years, after a few years of data being collected to firmly establish a problem exists. The time lag is necessary because we have previously found that two operating satellites in different orbits can diverge in their processed temperatures, only to converge again later. As will be shown below, we now have sufficient reason to truncate the NOAA-19 data record starting in 2021.

Why Do We Even Include a Satellite if it is Drifting in Local Observation Time?

The reasons why a diurnally drifting satellite is included in processing (with imperfect adjustments) are three-fold: (1) most satellites in the 1979-2024 period of record drifted, and so their inclusion was necessary to make a complete, intercalibrated satellite record of temperatures; (2) two operational satellites (usually one drifting much more than the other) provide more complete sampling during the month for our gridded dataset, which has 2.5 deg. lat/lon resolution; (3) having two (or sometimes 3) satellites allows monitoring of potential drifts, i.e., the time series of the difference between 2 satellite measurements should remain relatively stable over time.

Version 6.1 Brings the UAH Data closer to RSS and NOAA in the Last Few Years

Several people have noted that our temperature anomalies have been running warmer than those from the RSS or NOAA satellite products. It now appears this was due to the orbital drift of NOAA-19 beyond the useful range of our drift correction. The following plot (preliminary, provided to me by John Christy) [plot in original and not shown here] shows that truncation of the NOAA-19 record now brings the UAH anomalies more in line with the RSS and NOAA products.” [Boldface added here]

Spencer stated that the full explanation by Christy and him may take a few days “due to the changes resulting from going from v6.0 to v6.1 of the dataset.” On this issue the post on the “Global Temperature Report: October 2024 with Version 6.1” state:

“In the last two months we’ve suggested some reasons for the continued exceptional warmth of the global atmosphere even as the El Niño was fading away. One of the causes mentioned was the possibility that the correction for the drift of the aging NOAA-19 satellite was unable to keep up with its continued movement and produced spurious warmth over the last few years. By comparing the two current satellites, and especially since Europe’s MetOP-B does not drift due to on-board propulsion, we’ve concluded that the adjustment for NOAA-19’s drift was inadequate, generating temperatures that were too warm as time went on. This same situation has occurred in the past where we initially utilized old satellites beyond their normal lifespan (e.g., NOAA-14, -15, -18 and AQUA) and retroactively removed the latest portion of their records when errors progressively became large enough to affect the anomalies of the last few years. We have now decided to terminate the inclusion of NOAA-19 from 2021 onward. With this adjustment we will identify the product as v6.1. At some point in the near future, we intend to include MetOp-C in the record, so this may introduce some minor changes at that time.

This adjustment produces cooler temperatures after 2021 but does not change the facts that (a) 2023 was the warmest calendar year (and 2024 will be warmer still), (b) April 2024 produced the warmest single monthly anomaly, and (c) every month from October 2023 to September 2024 set monthly temperature records. The overall global trend was reduced slightly from +0.16 to +0.15 °C/decade by this adjustment.” [Boldface added]

Instruments fail, and when they cannot be replaced, adjustments must be made for the failure. Unlike the adjustments to the historic US surface dataset made by NOAA’s National Center for Environmental Information (NCEI), Asheville, the adjustments made by Spencer and Christy are public, carefully identified and justified, and recorded. Their actions demonstrate integrity in science, a characteristic which NCEI, Asheville lost. See links under Challenging the Orthodoxy.

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Beware of Cold: Owen Klinsky of the Daily Caller alerts the US public of the limited resources much of the US has if this winter is cold based on the 2024–2025 Winter Reliability Assessment by North American Electric Reliability Corporation (NERC). Klinsky writes:

“Grid operators have requested the EPA nix the power plant rule in order to protect long-term energy dependability, with four major regional operators filing an amicus brief in support of red states’ legal challenge against the rule, stating it would jeopardize the grid’s ability to reliably meet American energy needs.”

The Winter Reliability Assessment of NERC covers the three-month (December-February) winter period and evaluates the generation resource and transmission system adequacy necessary to meet projected winter peak demands and operating reserves. The assessment identifies potential reliability issues of interest and regional risks. It states:

“Natural gas fuel to generators is threatened this winter by ongoing concerns with natural gas production and delivery in extreme conditions and a potential regional pipeline capacity issue in the U.S. Mid-Atlantic and Northeast. Natural gas is an essential fuel for electricity generation in winter. While the natural gas industry is making progress on commercial practices and voluntary commitments to improve winter preparedness, supplies to electric generators remain vulnerable in extreme cold temperatures in many parts of North America, placing electric reliability at risk. As winter approaches, NERC encourages all entities across the gas-electric value chain—from production to the burner tip and the busbar—to take all necessary actions to prepare for extreme cold, keep natural gas flowing, and keep the lights and furnaces on.

At the time of this WRA, the operator of a major interstate natural gas pipeline expansion project serving the U.S. Mid-Atlantic and Northeast is facing legal challenges to the continued operation of the expanded pipeline. According to a recent Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) filing, a halting of the expanded pipeline operations would affect “firm transportation capacity in New Jersey, New York, Pennsylvania, Maryland, Delaware, Virginia, North Carolina, South Carolina, Georgia, and Alabama.” These states correspond to the PJM, NPCC-New York, SERC-East, and SERC-Southeast assessment areas. During recent extreme winter weather events, each of these areas has experienced or come dangerously close to a shortfall in electricity supply for which fuel availability was a significant factor. Because foreseeable extreme cold temperatures have the potential to push the existing natural gas supply infrastructure to maximum capacity again this winter, a shutdown of in-service regional natural gas facilities would endanger grid reliability.”

The failure of natural gas power plants in Texas during the last Blue Norther severe cold was due to the failure to have adequate supplies of natural gas on hand. This was a failure of the “just in time” policies of the Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT). If this winter is cold, we will see whether this EPA and litigating environmental groups care about electrical reliability for the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast states. See links under Energy Issues – US.

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The Copper Plate Assumption: Energy analyst Roger Caiazza continues to express his concern that New York’s Climate Leadership & Community Protection Act requires Net Zero without identifying so-called Dispatchable Emissions-Free Resources (DEFR). Caiazza summarizes his previous work and presents another analysis by Tim Knauss, based on the work of Cornell’s Anderson Lab headed by Lindsay Anderson. Knauss writes:

“To back up the massive quantities of solar and wind power that will provide most of our future electricity, the state power grid will need some new, mystery resource equal in size to the entire generating fleet of today.

That level of detail sets their work apart. Many of the studies that look at phasing in renewable energy pretend that the electric grid is a single pool of electrons that flow from point to point without constraint. It is known as the ‘copper plate’ assumption.

In reality, the New York electric grid is a complex, lopsided network that has been stitched together piece by piece over a century. There are limits on how much electric current can move from one area to another.

Based on Anderson’s work, Knauss writes:

“At Cornell University, Professor Lindsay Anderson and fellow researchers have been studying this problem. Given the specific layout of New York’s electric grid, they asked, how much of this new power source would be needed in addition to all the solar and wind?

A staggering amount, it turns out.

Just 15 years from now, the electric grid will need about 40 gigawatts of new generating capacity that can be activated regardless of wind speeds, cloud cover or other weather conditions, according to Anderson’s research.

How much is that? It’s roughly equal to the total capacity of all of New York’s current power plants – nuclear, natural gas, hydro, wind, all of it.”

The enormous needs for back-up to wind and solar have been noted elsewhere, and completely ignored by those promoting Net Zero. See links under Energy Issues – US.

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Bomb Cyclone: A rapid intensification of a cyclone is often referred to by colorful weather commentators as a bomb cyclone. The implication is that it is not predictable. In WUWT, Caribbean sailor Kip Hansen showed a video of a cyclone off the Northwest Coast of the US, and he considered it to be a bomb cyclone. Meteorologist Cliff Mass, in the Northwest, has a daily series on his blog showing that the cyclone was well predicted over five days. See links under Changing Weather.

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Number of the Week: 14 Drilling Records. The paper authored by Thomas Westerhold and 23 others “An astronomically dated record of Earth’s climate and its predictability over the last 66 million years” in AAAS Science on Sep 11, 2020, was based on 14 drilling records compiled in the International Ocean Discovery Program and its predecessor programs. As discussed in the July 15, 2023, TWTW, when Willis Eschenbach unraveled the data, it revealed that contrary to the assertion that Earth’s temperatures changed with changing CO2; Earth’s temperatures remained roughly constant with significant changes in CO2. See https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/science.aba6853 for the paper and https://www.sepp.org/twtwfiles/2023/TWTW%207-15-23.pdf for the TWTW.

Censorship

“Misinformation” Means “Shut Up”

By Ron Clutz, His Blog, Nov 21, 2024

Link to: Misinformation Is a Word We Use to Shut You Up

By Daniel Klein, Brownstone Institute, May 31, 2023

From Klein: What is being labeled and attacked as “misinformation” is not a matter of true or false information, but of true or false knowledge—meaning that disagreement more commonly arises over interpretations and judgments as to which interpretations to take stock in or believe. We make judgments, “good” and “bad,” “wise” and “foolish,” about interpretations, “true” and “false.”

One day to make submissions about the Under-16 social media ban (excuse to force Digital ID on us!)

By Jo Nova, Her Blog, Nov 22, 2024

They’re Trying to Silence Us: The G20’s War on Climate Skepticism

By Charles Rotter, WUWT, Nov 22, 2024

Link to: Brazil leads new international effort against climate lies

At the G20 summit in Brazil, governments are banding together to stop the spread of disinformation on climate change.

By Justine Calma, The Verge, Nov 19, 2024

Brazil and the United Nations launched a new international effort to combat disinformation on climate change. They announced the Global Initiative for Information Integrity on Climate Change during the G20 Leaders’ Summit taking place in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil.

“Countries cannot tackle this problem individually,” President of Brazil Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva said in a press release.

Challenging the Orthodoxy — NIPCC

Climate Change Reconsidered II: Physical Science

Idso, Carter, and Singer, Lead Authors/Editors, Nongovernmental International Panel on Climate Change (NIPCC), 2013

Summary: https://www.heartland.org/_template-assets/documents/CCR/CCR-II/Summary-for-Policymakers.pdf

Climate Change Reconsidered II: Biological Impacts

Idso, Idso, Carter, and Singer, Lead Authors/Editors, Nongovernmental International Panel on Climate Change (NIPCC), 2014

http://climatechangereconsidered.org/climate-change-reconsidered-ii-biological-impacts/

Climate Change Reconsidered II: Fossil Fuels

By Multiple Authors, Bezdek, Idso, Legates, and Singer eds., Nongovernmental International Panel on Climate Change, April 2019

http://climatechangereconsidered.org/climate-change-reconsidered-ii-fossil-fuels/

Why Scientists Disagree About Global Warming

The NIPCC Report on the Scientific Consensus

By Craig D. Idso, Robert M. Carter, and S. Fred Singer, Nongovernmental International Panel on Climate Change (NIPCC), Nov 23, 2015

http://climatechangereconsidered.org/why-scientists-disagree-about-global-warming/

Nature, Not Human Activity, Rules the Climate

S. Fred Singer, Editor, NIPCC, 2008

http://www.sepp.org/publications/nipcc_final.pdf

Challenging the Orthodoxy – Radiation Transfer

The Role of Greenhouse Gases in Energy Transfer in the Earth’s Atmosphere

By W.A. van Wijngaarden and W. Happer, Preprint, Mar 3, 2023

Dependence of Earth’s Thermal Radiation on Five Most Abundant Greenhouse Gases

By W.A. van Wijngaarden and W. Happer, Preprint, December 22, 2020

German Researcher: Doubling Of Atmospheric CO2 Causes Only 0.24°C Of Warming …Practically Insignificant

By P Gosselin, Net Zero Watch, Nov 19, 2024

Link to paper: Carbon dioxide and global warming

By Franz-Karl Reinhart, Carnot-Cournot Network, Sep 12, 2017

From Gosselin: German researcher concludes CO2 warming immensely exaggerated…. IR radiation of clouds considerably reduces the greenhouse effect of CO2.”

In total, around 200,000 frequency lines had to be taken into account in the relevant spectral range of 2.9 to 29 µm. Dr. Reinhart relied on the HITRAN program) for this analysis. This scientific software package offers the researcher comprehensive calculation tools, including the necessary databases. It calculates radiation reactions and radiation transport processes in all possible gases and gas mixtures according to the latest scientific and technical standards. Changes in atmospheric composition and density as well as their evolution with increasing altitude can be taken into account. HITRAN is used by scientists as well as satellite operators, meteorologists and the military due to the quality of its results.

[SEPP Comment: HITRAN is the best database publicly available, but the precise number CO2 causing a warming of only 0.24°C is not clear.]

Challenging the Orthodoxy

Global Temperature Report: October 2024 with Version 6.1

By John Christy, Roy Spencer, Nov 4, 20224

Link to: UAH v6.1 Global Temperature Update for October 2024: +0.73 deg. C After Truncation of the NOAA-19 Satellite Record

By Roy Spencer, His Blog, Nov 2, 2024

BRICS’ Kazan Declaration Trumps COP29 Climate Blather

By Vijay Jayaraj, CO2 Coalition, Nov 18, 2024

Link to: Kazan Declaration: ”Strengthening Multilateralism For Just Global Development And Security”

Press Release: Ministry of External Affairs, Government of India, Oct 23, 2024

Manufacturing Consensus on Climate Change

By Richard Lindzen, The American Mind, Nov 21, 2024 [H/t Jim Buell]

Randomness and Reality

By Delancyplace.com, Nov 20, 2024

Fooled by Randomness: The Hidden Role of Chance in Life and in the Markets (Incerto) By Nassim Nicholas Taleb, Amazon.com, October 14, 2008

Energy Realism Marching Ahead

By Ron Clutz, His Blog, Nov 20, 2024

Link to: Irresistible March of Energy Realism

Trillions in pork is doing nothing to influence CO2 or climate change.

By Holman W. Jenkins, Jr., WSJ, Nov 19, 2024

How Can We ‘Trust The Science’ When We Can’t Trust The Data?

By I & I Editorial Board, Nov 14, 2024

Given that it’s all based on somewhat spurious readings of temperature data both past and present, the trillions of dollars spent doesn’t seem like a prudent investment. No, it looks more like the biggest gamble ever. Do you “trust the science?”

Defending the Orthodoxy – Bandwagon Science

Climate Change, Floods, and Human Health

By Yao Wu, et al., The New England Journal of Medicine, Nov 20, 2024

Projections based on a scenario of high greenhouse-gas emissions indicate that flood frequency will increase in 42% of worldwide land-grid cells during 2071–2100 (from 1971–2000 levels), including Southeast Asia, peninsular India, eastern Africa, and the northern half of the Andes (in South America).

Redefining net zero will not stop global warming

Press Release, University of Oxford, Nov 18, 2024 [H/t Bernie Kepshire]

Link to paper: Geological Net Zero and the need for disaggregated accounting for carbon sinks

By Myles Allen, et al., Nature, Nov 18, 2024

[SEPP Comment: Typical net zero thinking: Enshrine the Paris Agreement and ignore the costs and the fact that China and the BRICS countries don’t care.]

Climate change strengthened hurricanes by 18 miles per hour: Study

By Ashleigh Fields, The Hill, Nov 20, 2024

Link to paper: Human-caused ocean warming has intensified recent hurricanes

By Daniel M Gilford, Joseph Giguere and Andrew J Pershing, Environmental Research: Climate, Nov 20, 2024

From: Using observations, climate models, and potential intensity theory, this study introduces a novel rapid attribution framework that quantifies the impact of historically warming North Atlantic SSTs on observed hurricane maximum wind speeds. The attribution framework employs a storyline attribution approach exploring a comprehensive set of counterfactuals scenarios—estimates characterizing historical SST shifts due to human-caused climate change—and considering atmospheric variability.

[SEPP Comment: The study assumes that increase in sea surface temperatures are caused by humans (CO2).]

Admission of Gavin

By John Robson, Climate Discussion Nexus, Nov 20, 2024

[SEPP Comment: We need more money to prove the science is settled.]

Questioning the Orthodoxy

Confessing to the Error of Biden’s Ways

By Staff, Government Accountability & Oversight, Nov 21, 2024

[SEPP Comment: An interesting way to possibly renounce new regulations under the Biden administration.]

Climate scientists officially declare ‘climate emergency’ at an end

Press release by the Climate Intelligence Group (CLINTEL), Via WUWT, Nov 19, 2024

Is deadly weather being ‘supercharged’?

By Ross Clark, The Spectator, Nov 18, 2024 [H/t Paul Homewood]

Link to: Mapped: How climate change affects extreme weather around the world

By Robert McSweeney and Ayesha Tandon, Carbon Brief, Nov 18, 2024

From Carbon Brief: The scientists worked out that human influence had at least doubled the risk of such an extreme heatwave occurring. The findings made headlines around the world.

The study kick-started the scientific field of “extreme event attribution”.

[SEPP Comment: Additional false claims of probabilities are exposed by Clark.]

Tidbits

By John Robson, Climate Discussion Nexus, Nov 20, 2024

Politicians start with a dream, and when it goes sour, they too often refuse to admit it and instead prop it up. But the cost to the rest of us, including the poor to whom this money does not go directly from their fellows in charity or via the state, and the middle class whose power bills keep skyrocketing because politicians don’t know what “cheap” even means, is enormous. And how much are politicians’ delusions really worth anyway?

We’re all Doomed. Yawn

By Michael Kile, WUWT, Nov 21, 2024

Such a view arguably becomes more credible on discovering that WWA’s main benefactor is The Grantham Institute. It sits “at the heart of Imperial College London’s work on climate change and the environment, with the mission: “to lead on world-class research, policy, training and innovation that supports effective action on climate change.” [Italics by Kile]

Grantham is right. Climate change has become a global “business”, presumably very profitable for “carbon” cowboys or green investors like GMO, at least unless the RE music stops for some reason, such as a decline in public gullibility about the “climate crisis”.

Climate Debate on Social Media: Are the ‘Skeptics’ Winning?

By Robert Bradley Jr., Master Resource, Nov 22, 2024

After Paris!

Green Activists Are Coming for Your Money

By Paul Mueller, The Daily Economy, Nov 18, 2024

Cheap energy means a future of greater freedom and prosperity for everyone.

Because eliminating all emissions is next to impossible, companies are being encouraged (or required) to buy offsets from other companies or countries that purport to pull a certain amount of carbon out of the air. There are many reasons to be skeptical of this whole project. The efficacy of carbon offsets is highly questionable because they create all kinds of bad incentives.

The injustice of climate reparations

COP 29 leaders are demanding over a $1 trillion a year in climate reparations from the US and other successful nations. They don’t deserve a nickel.

By Alex Epstein, His Blog, Nov 16, 2024

Call off the COPs

By John Robson, Climate Discussion Nexus, Nov 20, 2024

[SEPP Comment: International bureaucracy in action.]

COP 29: The big UN money grab

By Craig Rucker, CFACT, Nov 21, 2024

[SEPP Comment: A large banner states: Deliver Climate Finance for Equitable and Just Transition. Transition to What – Poverty?]

Aliyev roasts the West for double standards as COP29 goes off the rails

By Ben Aris, BNE Intellinews. Nov 15, 2024 [H/t Bernie Kepshire]

COP 29: Finance monster grows many optional heads

By David Wojick, CFACT, Nov 16, 2024

Host Nation of UN COP29 Summit Explodes Climate Narrative

Azerbaijan president makes no apology for fossil fuels.

By Peter Murphy, Real Clear Energy, Nov 19, 2024

Al Gore: Climate Barking at COP29

By Robert Bradley Jr., Master Resource, Nov 21, 2024

‘I Press My Own Buttons’: Al Gore Goes On Unhinged Rant During UN Climate Summit

By Harold Hutchison, Daily Caller, Nov 15, 2024

While addressing the conference, Gore claimed that predictions by climate scientists had been proven to be “dead right.”

“Do we listen to the polluters, who don’t want to do anything meaningful that might reduce fossil fuels, or do we listen to the scientists who have been telling us what we need to do?”

Social Benefits of Carbon Dioxide

Tailpipes and Chimneys Greening Gardens and Forests

By Vijay Jayaraj, CO2 Coalition, Nov 19, 2024

Effect of CO2 on photosynthesis of garden beans

By John Robson, Climate Discussion Nexus, Nov 20, 2024

From the CO2Science Archive:

Green Blackout Part I: The SPMs

By John Robson, Climate Discussion Nexus, Nov 20, 2024

So, if you are talking to someone about climate change and they have dutifully read all the SPMs of all the Working Groups of the past two IPCC Assessment Reports, don’t expect them to know anything about global greening.

Problems in the Orthodoxy

Club of Rome: COP29 “No longer fit for purpose”

By Eric Worrall, WUWT, Nov 17, 2024

You would think after an intellectual blunder like “The Limits to Growth” that they would have changed their name or something, but every so often The Club of Rome still pops their head above the parapet to deliver a doom-laden pronouncement or scold the world for not being run the way they would like it to be run.

[SEPP Comment: The signers include Ban Ki-moon, former Secretary-General of the United Nations; and Christiana Figueres, Former Executive Secretary of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. The UN is clearly a political organization not an impartial one.]

POLITICO: Argentina mulls UN Paris climate agreement exit with Trump – ‘Both countries explore leaving the landmark 2015 accord’

By Marc Morano, Climate Depot, Nov 17, 2024

Plastic bag bans can sometimes backfire: Study

By Sharon Udasin, The Hill, Nov 18, 2024

Link to paper: EXPRESS: Are We Worse off after Policy Repeals? Evidence from Two Green Policies

By Dinesh Puranam, et al., Journal of Marketing Research, Sep 29, 2024

Seeking a Common Ground

Clarifying Climate Terminology: Chris Martz on Anthropogenic Warming

By Chris Martz, WUWT, Nov 20, 2024

Science, Policy, and Evidence

What Happens After Major Cuts In Government Spending? The Latest From Argentina

By Francis Menton, Manhattan Contrarian, Nov 18, 2024

[SEPP Comment: It is not change in GDP, alone, that is most important; most important is change in economic productivity, which is often delayed.]

“There Is a Design Problem In Climate Policy” Featuring Dr. Roger Pielke Jr. & Chris Wright, Liberty

By Charles Rotter, WUWT, Nov 20, 2024

Video and Partial Text

Measurement Issues — Surface

The Misunderstanding of Drought

By Kip Hansen, WUWT, Nov 20, 2024

The US Drought Monitor drought index is a very subjective metric of drought – and mostly means “less rain over the period [week, month, year] than average”. What it does not mean is that local water companies have to start restricting water use or call for voluntary water usage.

While researching for this essay, I came across this statement at the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency [EPA]:

“When you use these water–saving products in your home or business, you can expect exceptional performance, savings on your water bills, and assurance that you are saving water for future generations.” [Boldface by Hansen]

Changing Weather

The UK’s Weather in 2023

By Paul Homewood, Global Warming Policy Foundation, Nov 18, 2024

Press Release: https://www.thegwpf.org/publications/uk-weather-in-2023/

Full Paper: https://www.thegwpf.org/content/uploads/2024/11/UK-Weather-2023.pdf

A Pacific “Hurricane” Off the Northwest Coast on Tuesday

By Cliff Mass, Weather Blog, Nov 16, 2024

Extreme Offshore Storm Could Produce Damaging Winds over the Western Cascade Foothills

By Cliff Mass, Weather Blog, Nov 17, 2024

The Deepest Low-Pressure Center in Northwest History? Damaging Winds West of the Cascades

By Cliff Mass, Weather Blog, Nov 18, 2024

The Storm Reveals Itself. The Eastside Wind Threat

By Cliff Mass, Weather Blog, Nov 19, 2024

A Near Perfect Forecast of Yesterday’s Event. The Next Windstorm Comes into View

By Cliff Mass, Weather Blog, Nov 20, 2024

Tomorrow’s Windstorm in Four Acts

By Cliff Mass, Weather Blog, Nov 21, 2024

Are Eastern Pacific Cyclones Become More Frequent or Stronger?

By Cliff Mass, Weather Blog, Nov 22, 2024

Now, That’s the Bomb!

By Kip Hansen, WUWT, Nov 20, 2024

Wind Speeds Dropping, Rainfall Similar to a Century Ago – the Climate News You Won’t Hear in the Mainstream

By Chris Morrison, The Daily Sceptic, Nov 21, 2024

Changing Seas

Reflections on Claims about Coral Cover (Part 1)

By Jennifer Marohasy, Her Blog, Nov 19, 2024

[SEPP Comment: How does The Australian Institute of Marine Science (AIMS) explain that corals survived the Younger Dryas.]

Changing Cryosphere – Land / Sea Ice

‘Global’ Warming? Little Ice Age Cooling And Sea Ice Expansion Is Still Ongoing Across Antarctica Today

By Kenneth Richard, No Tricks Zone, Nov 22, 2024

Link to paper: Holocene paleoceanographic variability in Robertson Bay, Ross Sea, Antarctica: A marine record of ocean, ice sheet, and climate connectivity

By Olivia J. Truax, et al., Quaternary Science Reviews, May 15, 2024

[SEPP Comment: Cannot generalize for the entire continent from the narrow scope of the study.]

New Study: Greenland Cooled by -0.11°C From 2000-2019 – Including All Ice Free And Ice Covered Areas

By Kenneth Richard, No Tricks Zone, Nov 19, 2024

Link to paper: Spatial and temporal patterns of land surface temperature in Greenland from 2000-2019

By Nitinun Pongsiri, et al., Mausam, Quarterly Journal of Meteorology, Hydrology & Geophysics, vol. 75, no. 2,

Changing Earth

Quantification of Record-Breaking Subsidence in California’s San Joaquin Valley

By M. Lees & R. Knight, Nature, Communications Earth & Environment, Nov 19, 2024 [H/t Bernie Kepshire]

[SEPP Comment: Groundwater overdraft is a widespread problem in the US. In coastal areas it can be solved with de-salination of seawater. In inland areas the approach should be tailored for the particular region.]

Agriculture Issues & Fear of Famine

Science notes in passing

By John Robson, Climate Discussion Nexus, Nov 20, 2024

Paul Homewood (h/t Not A Lot of People Know That) points to detailed computational work done by a team of physicists from the Netherlands, US and Canada which confirms that, while a molecule of N2O has 230 times more radiative forcing strength than a molecule of CO2, it’s only because there’s so much more CO2 in the atmosphere and its effect is heavily saturated.

[SEPP Comment: Also, the calculations were done without including the influence of water vapor.]

Lowering Standards

Millions of Pounds of Cold Weather Benefits Could be Lost Due to Unreliable Met Office Data

By Chris Morrison, The Daily Sceptic, Nov 18, 2024

To date, the obvious problems surrounding the Met Office’s temperature measuring abilities have been ignored. To discuss the matter risks opening a pandora’s box since it would subject data that backs Net Zero to greater scrutiny. It will be interesting to see if this position holds following suggestions that its figures could be depriving poor and vulnerable members of society from collecting much needed cold weather payments.

Communicating Better to the Public – Use Yellow (Green) Journalism?

NEWSPEAK: ‘Sacrifice’ Now Means ‘Enjoy,’ ‘Ban’ Now Means ‘Upgrade,’ According to Lib Climate Group.

Editorial, The National Pulse, Nov 22, 2024 [H/t Bernie Kepshire]

Climate change goosed hurricane wind strength by 18 mph since 2019, study says

By Seth Borenstein, AP, Nov 20, 2024 [H/t Bernie Kepshire]

“We had two Category Five storms here in 2024,” Gifford (of climate central) said. “Our analysis shows that we would have had zero Category Five storms without human-caused climate change.”

[SEPP Comment: The two Category 5 storms in 2024 were Milton and Beryl. Milton was a Category 3 storm when it made landfall on Oct 9; Beryl was a category 2 storm when it made landfall in the Yucatan on July 5, and a category 1 storm when it made landfall in Texas on July 8. In the 1930s six Category 5 storms where recorded including the 1933 storm that hit Florida and Texas, the 1935 storm that that hit Florida and went up East Coast to Virginia, and the 1938 New England storm that went to Quebec Provence. Where these storms “goosed” by human caused climate change? The issue for comparing current storms with historical storms is: What category are they when the make landfall?]

Ignore Elections, Say CCN

By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Nov 22, 2024

[SEPP Comment: “Organized by journalists for journalists, Covering Climate Now works to improve climate coverage worldwide.” https://coveringclimatenow.org/about/]

No, Atlanta News First, Climate Change is Not Threatening the “Way of Life” of Georgia Farmers

By Anthony Watts, Climate Realism, Nov 22, 2024

A thorough analysis of regional climate data and agricultural outcomes in Georgia reveals that there is no evidence climate change is altering weather patterns in Georgia for the worse or harming the state’s agriculture sector. The Southeastern United States has experienced a modest cooling trend in recent decades and Georgia’s peach industry, contrary to the impression given in the ANF article, achieved record yields in 2024. These facts underscore the bogus nature of ANF’s article.

Communicating Better to the Public – Exaggerate, or be Vague?

No, Hurricanes Helene and Milton Were Not “Supercharged” by Climate Change

By Chris Martz, His Blog, Nov 3, 2024

We may live in the 21^st century, but when it comes to the weather, the human mind has not evolved past Dark Age superstition.

Communicating Better to the Public – Make things up.

The Math Behind New York City’s Local Law 97 Does Not Add Up

By Roger Caiazza, WUWT, Nov 18, 2024

For those of us who have been analyzing this and understand the numbers, it has been apparent for years that all the policies, both in LL97 and the Climate Leadership & Community Protection Act were fabrications. These numbers just prove it.

Communicating Better to the Public – Use Propaganda on Children

Kids Get Enough Climate Propaganda Already, News4Jax, They Don’t Need More

By Linnea Lueken, Climate Realism, Nov 15, 2024

Communicating Better to the Public – Use Children for Propaganda

Surfboards and Science: Why a 17-Year-Old’s Ocean ‘Thermometer’ Won’t Save the Planet

By Charles Rotter, WUWT, Nov 19, 2024

“’As a surfer, I’m constantly on the ocean, and I actually felt the oceans warming,’ says Catarina Lorenzo, 17, a professional surfer from Salvador, in Bahia state in Brazil.”

[SEPP Comment: Did the 17-year-old “professional surfer” take her personal thermometer to the deep abyss? Why believe delegates at COP 29 who listen to such children?]

Communicating Better to the Public – Protest

West Midlands town in uproar over ‘noisy’ £2.5m heat pump

By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Nov 19, 2024

Questioning European Green

European oil giants step back from renewables path

By Ron Bousso, Reuters, Nov 18, 2024 [H/t Bernie Kepshire]

Why Ed Miliband’s net zero dream is doomed to failure

By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Nov 17, 2024

Deutschland, Deutschland under Wasser

By John Robson, Climate Discussion Nexus, Nov 20, 2024

Now suppose you’re Burkina Faso with 22 million people, 114th in global GDP and 171st if you’re measuring it per capita, and some high-falutin’ Western idealist or politician breezes in and says forget that silly old oil, gas and coal. You should power your economy the way Germany does. That way you can have a crumbling industrial base, collapsing national finances and political chaos.

So ja, there is a green transition. Straight down.

Questioning Green Elsewhere

The so-called ‘green movement’ increases the world’s demand for crude oil

By Ronald Stein, America Outloud, Nov 18, 2024

Green Jobs

Ford to cut 800 UK jobs as electric car sales flag

By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Nov 21, 2024

The Political Games Continue

Labour is facing a civil war over net zero [UK]

By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Nov 20, 2024

Litigation Issues

As predicted, climate lawsuits begin targeting utilities and manufacturers, along with ‘Big Oil’

Should the lawsuits be successful, the cost of the awards or settlements will be passed onto ratepayers and consumers.

By Kevin Killough, Just the News, Nov 17, 2024

Nonprofits Influence Climate Litigation Against Major Energy Companies

By Jonathan Draeger, Real Clear Wire, Nov 21, 2024 [H/t Bernie Kepshire]

Judge rules Youngkin administration can’t pull Virginia out of greenhouse gas agreement

By Zack Budryk, The Hill, Nov 20, 2024

A Virginia [Floyd County Circuit] court ruled Wednesday that Gov. Glenn Youngkin’s (R) administration cannot withdraw from an interstate carbon emission-capping compact without approval from the state Legislature.

[SEPP Comment: The population of Floyd County is about 15,000. A nonprofit victory?]

Regional Greenhouse Gas Initiative is Back, Prepare to Pay

By Steve Haner, WUWT, Nov 21, 2024

During the three years Virginia was part of the multi-state cap and tax compact, Virginia collected $828 million from electric power producers seeking permits to emit CO2. The largest of the payers in the state, Dominion Energy Virginia, simply passed its cost along to consumers dollar for dollar right on monthly bills.

[SEPP Comment: See link immediately above.]

Subsidies and Mandates Forever

New Wind Farm Subsidies

By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Nov 18, 2024

At current prices, the latest CfD strike prices for offshore wind stand at around £82/MWh. This new bonus will add about £8/MWh to this.

[SEPP Comment: This brings the CfD (Contract for Difference) for offshore wind to £90/MWh or about $112.50/MWh. In the US, the average price of wholesale electricity was about $36/MWh in 2023.]

EPA and other Regulators on the March

Biden proposes to restrict pollution from new gas plants

By Rachel Frazin, The Hill, Nov 22, 2024

Link to Agency for Toxic Subsidies and Disease Registry (ATSDR): Nitrogen Oxides

Fact Sheet, Division of Toxicology, US Department of Health and Human Services, April 2002

From article: The Biden administration has proposed a rule that it says will reduce pollution stemming from new gas-fired power plants and other industrial facilities.

The proposal would require these plants to cut their emissions of pollutants known as nitrogen oxides, which can lead to smog formation and contribute to asthma in people with long-term exposure.

From ATSDR sheet: HIGHLIGHTS: Everybody is exposed to small amounts of nitrogen oxides in ambient air. Higher exposure may occur by burning wood or kerosene or near gas stoves or if you smoke. Exposure to high levels of nitrogen oxides can damage the respiratory airways. Contact with the skin or eyes can cause burns. Nitrogen dioxide and nitric oxide have been found in at least 9 and 6 of the 1,585 National Priorities List sites identified by the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), respectively.

What are nitrogen oxides?

Nitrogen oxides are a mixture of gases that are composed of nitrogen and oxygen. Two of the most toxicologically significant nitrogen oxides are nitric oxide and nitrogen dioxide; both are nonflammable and colorless to brown at room temperature. Nitric oxide is a sharp sweet-smelling gas at room temperature, whereas nitrogen dioxide has a strong, harsh odor and is a liquid at room temperature, becoming a reddish-brown gas above 70 °F.

Nitrogen oxides do not build up in the food chain. [Boldface added]

How can nitrogen oxides affect my health?

Low levels of nitrogen oxides in the air can irritate your eyes, nose, throat, and lungs, possibly causing you to cough and experience shortness of breath, tiredness, and nausea.

[SEPP Comment: A new tactic by EPA for controlling gas power plants by using a fear justified by coal fired power plants without scrubbers. This was triggered by a friendly settlement between EPA and environmental groups. The affected parties such as power plants and consumers who pay the costs were not invited.]

Energy Issues – Non-US

“Hygiene Poverty”: The Brutal Reality of Life in Net Zero Britain

By Eric Worrall, WUWT, Nov 16, 2024

[SEPP Comment: If the report from Sky News is accurate, it is really sad.]

Rota Load Disconnections- aka Power Cuts–Coming To Your Street

By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Nov 17, 2024

They’re preparing for the inevitable blackouts:

Ed Miliband’s new heat pump plan could tip us into civil unrest [UK]

By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Nov 22, 2024

Alberta: CO2 is Positive!

By Robert Bradley Jr., Master Resource, Nov 20, 2024

Energy Issues – Australia

Blockbuster: Labor’s weather control “renewables plan” turns out to be half a trillion more than expected

By Jo Nova, Her Blog, Nov 19, 2024

The Minister for Energy says the cost of renewables by 2050 will be $122 billion (AUD). Not convinced, the Opposition commissioned a study that estimates it’s more like $650 billion. But what’s a half a trillion dollars when you have hope, faith, and a fantasy to make storms a bit nicer?

BIG News — The Climate Blob finally goes Nuclear “to save the world”: US and UK offer nuclear secrets (and Australia says NO)

By Jo Nova, Her Blog, Nov 20, 2024

Energy Issues — US

‘Energy-Limited Resources’: Huge Swaths Of America Face Blackout Risks If Winter Is Bitter, Grid Watchdog Warns

By Owen Klinsky, Daily Caller, Nov 15, 2024

Link to: 2024–2025 Winter Reliability Assessment

By Staff, North American Electric Reliability Corporation (NERC), November 2024

New York DEFR Concerns Update

By Roger Caiazza, WUWT, Nov 21, 2024

Link to: There’s a mind-boggling gap in NY’s plan for a clean electric grid. ‘We are so far behind’

By Tim Knauss, Syracuse.com, Via Roger Caiazza, Nov 19, 2024

Utility Companies Are Not on Our Side

By Linnea Lueken & H. Sterling Burnet, Real Clear Politics, Nov 20, 2024

Today, utility companies are sending lobbyists to conservative policymakers in order to convince them that the utilities have our best interests in mind. Their track record tells another story. Meanwhile, Americans have less reliable electricity at higher costs.

[SEPP Comment: Utility companies increase profits based on allowable investments. If wind and solar are allowable investments, profits increase. The consumers need for affordable, reliable electricity is ignored.]

Lighting Up America: Why Chris Wright Should Be Welcomed, Not Spurned

By Kevin Dayaratna , Roy Spencer, Real Clear Energy, Nov 20, 2024

But Mr. Wright’s qualifications have become obscured by the media focus on his views on climate change. For example, the Washington Post derides Mr. Wright as a “skeptic of mainstream climate science.”

[SEPP Comment: Nature is a skeptic of Washington Post’s mainstream climate science.]

Energy Realism from Next US Dept. Head

By Ron Clutz, His Blog, Nov 19, 2024

Energy Realism and Climate Pragmatism at the Department of Energy

By Roger Pielke Jr, His Blog, Via AEI, Nov 19, 2024

Link to: Bettering Human Lives

By Liberty Energy, 2024

Chris Wright, An Unapologetic Energy Humanist, Will Be The Next Secretary Of Energy

For the first time, the DOE will be led by someone from the energy sector.

By Robert Bryce, His Blog, Nov 16, 2024

Quotes Wright: “I’m so optimistic positive change can happen… we’re driving the price of energy needlessly up, we’re destabilizing our electricity grid needlessly. These are huge problems. But ultimately, they will be reversed when political aspirations collapse, [when they] collide with physics, physics wins every time and will again here.”

A Look At President-Elect Trump’s Picks For The Key Energy Policy Positions

By Francis Menton, Manhattan Contrarian, Nov 21, 2024

[SEPP Comment: Also “all of the above” strategy could mean no special tax breaks for all, just ordinary business deductions for wearing down assets? If an energy scheme works, fine; if it does not work, no special tax breaks to try to make it work.]

Climate Justice for Thee But Not for Me

By Neel Brown, Real Clear Energy, Nov 19, 2024

Exploring the impact of offshore wind on whale deaths

Some experts are worried wind farm survey noise adds stress and increases whale deaths.

Press Release, Acoustical Society of America, Nov 21, 2024 [H/t Bernie Kepshire]

[SEPP Comment: Does not get at the critical question: Do ocean-based turbines disrupt the sensors of oceanic mammals that depend on echolocation?]

Oil and Natural Gas – the Future or the Past?

Oil for one, and oil for all

By John Robson, Climate Discussion Nexus, Nov 20, 2024

Return of King Coal?

Restoring America Requires Coal Policies Grounded in Reality

By Emily Arthun, Real Clear Energy, Nov 19, 2024

Coal is a critical resource that plays a vital role in ensuring affordable and reliable energy access in the U.S. The dismissal of this resource by the Obama and Biden administrations has been a tragedy, driven by greed and naivete under the guise of health and well-being concerns.

Oil Spills, Gas Leaks & Consequences

Phillips 66 charged with dumping oil into Los Angeles wastewater

By Rachel Frazin, The Hill, Nov 21, 2024

Nuclear Energy and Fears

Potassium Iodide vs. Nuclear Radiation: What it Can, and Cannot, Do

By Josh Bloom, ACSH, Nov 19, 2024

No U-Turn on Nukes

By Bill Ponton, Real Clear Energy, Nov 19, 2024

For the climate movement to embrace nuclear power would entail rejecting the antinuclear stance of its parent, the environmental movement. Starting in the 1970’s and continuing to the present day, nuclear power has been a chief concern of the environmental movement.

Alternative, Green (“Clean”) Solar and Wind

Promoting Solar Is Crucial to Preserving American Farmland and Rural Communities

By Matt Levine, Real Clear Energy, Nov 18, 2024

[SEPP Comment: Covering farmland with solar panels protects farmland?]

UK Approves $2.5 Billion Funding for Power Link to North Sea Wind Farms

By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Nov 16, 2024

Forget the nonsense about “volatile gas markets”. Gas prices sometimes go up, and sometimes they go down. But apart from a few months in 2022, gas fired power has been consistently cheaper than wind.

In other words, we are going to have £20 billion added to our energy bills, in order to transmit expensive wind power!

Inaudible Infrasound from Wind Turbines Disturbs Health of Humans and All Organisms

By Tracy Beanz & Michelle Edwards, The HighWire, Nov 19, 2024 [H/t Bernie Kepshire]

Wind Turbine Foundations

By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Nov 20, 2024

Video: Ever wondered what goes into the foundations of a wind turbine?

Alternative, Green (“Clean”) Energy — Other

Major geothermal bills pass House, widening path for clean energy drilling boom

By Saul Elbein, The Hill, Nov 20, 204

Research from the Biden Department of Energy has found that $25 billion in near-term geothermal investment could start a rolling snowball of geothermal innovation that could ultimately power hundreds of millions of U.S. homes.

[SEPP Comment: Unable to locate the research supporting the above statement.]

Alternative, Green (“Clean”) Energy — Storage

Jinzhai Pumped-Storage Hydro Facility Helps Integrate Renewable Energy and Solve Grid Stability Challenges

Pumped-storage hydropower is seen as a key technology in China to balance the grid and store excess energy from intermittent sources like wind and solar. The 1.2-GW Jinzhai pumped-storage project is a model for the industry and winner of a 2024 POWER Top Plant award.

By Aaron Larson, Power Mag, Accessed Nov 20, 2024

[SEPP Comment: The article fails to discuss the key issue: How is timely replenishment of upper reservoir water accomplished that is needed for pumped-storage hydro?]

The Home-Based Battery Storage Fantasy

By Jonathan Lesser, Real Clear Energy, Nov 21, 2024

Alternative, Green (“Clean”) Vehicles

Growing Electric Car Sales Slump In Germany… Ford Cuts Back Production In Cologne Plant

By P Gosselin, No Tricks Zone, Nov 16, 2024

Think twice about using hot air blower during cold snap, electric [vehicles] drivers warned

By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Nov 22, 2024

California Dreaming

The Numbers Driving California vs Washington on Energy, Water & Forestry

By Edward Ring, What’s Current, Nov 20, 2024

On one side, the incoming Trump administration will pursue deregulation that may help businesses remain in California, and on the other side, the Newsom administration is going to do everything in its power to stop them. For many businesses in California, successfully balancing these powerful competing forces is a matter of survival.

Health, Energy, and Climate

Water, Water Everywhere in NC … But Not a Drop to Drink

By Susan Goldhaber MPH, ACSH, Nov 19, 2024

[SEPP Consequences of rejecting flood control dams proposed by the Tennessee Valley Authority (TVA).]

Environmental Industry

Destructive Environmentalists

By John Stossel, PJ Media, Nov 20, 2024

America now ranks second to last in the time it takes to develop a new mine — roughly 29 years. Only Zambia is worse.

Good thing we have all the money

By John Robson, Climate Discussion Nexus, Nov 20, 2024

But they’re [Charities promoting climate alarmism] using their resources to make life more expensive not more affordable, a strange form of charity especially when food banks in Canada just had over two million visits in a single month. But it seems no poor people need to apply. Who knows that sort anyway?

Other Scientific News

Scientists identify previously unknown compound in drinking water

By Sharon Udasin, The Hil, Nov 21, 2024

Link to paper: Chloronitramide anion is a decomposition product of inorganic chloramines

By Julian Fairey, et al., AAAS Scoemce. Nov 21, 2024

From abstract: Analysis of chloraminated US drinking waters found Cl–N–NO2− in all samples tested (n = 40), with a median concentration of 23 micrograms per liter and first and third quartiles of 1.3 and 92 micrograms per liter, respectively. Cl–N–NO2− warrants occurrence and toxicity studies in chloraminated water systems that serve more than 113 million people in the US alone.

From article: Lead author Julian Fairey, an associate professor of civil engineering at the University of Arkansas, stressed in a statement that even if the new compound is not toxic, there is much knowledge to gain from their study and future related research.

[SEPP Comment: The chemicals are used to protect people from diseases like typhoid and cholera. Is the decomposed product toxic? At what concentrations?]

Other News that May Be of Interest

2nd Baltic Sea Cable Cut; Germany Suspects Sabotage

By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Nov 21, 2024

[SEPP Comment: A communications cable near two pipelines.]

BELOW THE BOTTOM LINE

Claim: The Energy Transition will only cost $3-12 Trillion per Year

By Eric Worrall, WUWT, Nov 21, 2024

[SEPP Comment: Spend the money building starships instead?]

David Viner Day

By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Nov 19, 2024

[SEPP Comment: The first heavy snowfall in the UK, named after the climate scientist who claimed in 2000: “Children just aren’t going to know what snow is.”]

New BBC Climate Expert

By Tony Heller, His Blog, Nov 19, 2024

Put cigarette-style warnings on bacon, says Dale Vince

By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Nov 19, 2024

This is what you get when you send tens of millions in wind subsidies to some overgrown child.

The End Of Polar Bears

By Tony Heller, His Blog, Nov 20, 2024

ARTICLES

1. Elon Musk and Vivek Ramaswamy: The DOGE Plan to Reform Government

Following the Supreme Court’s guidance, we’ll reverse a decadeslong executive power grab.

By Elon Musk and Vivek Ramaswamy, WSJ, Nov 20, 2024

TWTW Summary: the authors begin with:

“Our nation was founded on the basic idea that the people we elect run the government. That isn’t how America functions today. Most legal edicts aren’t laws enacted by Congress, but ‘rules and regulations’ promulgated by unelected bureaucrats—tens of thousands of them each year. Most government enforcement decisions and discretionary expenditures aren’t made by the democratically elected president or even his political appointees but by millions of unelected, unappointed civil servants within government agencies who view themselves as immune from firing thanks to civil-service protections.

This is antidemocratic and antithetical to the Founders’ vision. It imposes massive direct and indirect costs on taxpayers. Thankfully, we have a historic opportunity to solve the problem. On Nov. 5, voters decisively elected Donald Trump with a mandate for sweeping change, and they deserve to get it.

President Trump has asked the two of us to lead a newly formed Department of Government Efficiency, or DOGE, to cut the federal government down to size. The entrenched and ever-growing bureaucracy represents an existential threat to our republic, and politicians have abetted it for too long. That’s why we’re doing things differently. We are entrepreneurs, not politicians. We will serve as outside volunteers, not federal officials or employees. Unlike government commissions or advisory committees, we won’t just write reports or cut ribbons. We’ll cut costs.

We are assisting the Trump transition team to identify and hire a lean team of small-government crusaders, including some of the sharpest technical and legal minds in America. This team will work in the new administration closely with the White House Office of Management and Budget. The two of us will advise DOGE at every step to pursue three major kinds of reform: regulatory rescissions, administrative reductions and cost savings. We will focus particularly on driving change through executive action based on existing legislation rather than by passing new laws. Our North Star for reform will be the U.S. Constitution, with a focus on two critical Supreme Court rulings issued during President Biden’s tenure.

In West Virginia v. Environmental Protection Agency (2022), the justices held that agencies can’t impose regulations dealing with major economic or policy questions unless Congress specifically authorizes them to do so. In Loper Bright v. Raimondo (2024), the court overturned the Chevron doctrine and held that federal courts should no longer defer to federal agencies’ interpretations of the law or their own rulemaking authority. Together, these cases suggest that a plethora of current federal regulations exceed the authority Congress has granted under the law.

DOGE will work with legal experts embedded in government agencies, aided by advanced technology, to apply these rulings to federal regulations enacted by such agencies. DOGE will present this list of regulations to President Trump, who can, by executive action, immediately pause the enforcement of those regulations and initiate the process for review and rescission. This would liberate individuals and businesses from illicit regulations never passed by Congress and stimulate the U.S. economy.

When the president nullifies thousands of such regulations, critics will allege executive overreach. In fact, it will be correcting the executive overreach of thousands of regulations promulgated by administrative fiat that were never authorized by Congress. The president owes lawmaking deference to Congress, not to bureaucrats deep within federal agencies. The use of executive orders to substitute for lawmaking by adding burdensome new rules is a constitutional affront, but the use of executive orders to roll back regulations that wrongly bypassed Congress is legitimate and necessary to comply with the Supreme Court’s recent mandates. And after those regulations are fully rescinded, a future president couldn’t simply flip the switch and revive them but would instead have to ask Congress to do so.

A drastic reduction in federal regulations provides sound industrial logic for mass head-count reductions across the federal bureaucracy. DOGE intends to work with embedded appointees in agencies to identify the minimum number of employees required at an agency for it to perform its constitutionally permissible and statutorily mandated functions. The number of federal employees to cut should be at least proportionate to the number of federal regulations that are nullified: Not only are fewer employees required to enforce fewer regulations, but the agency would produce fewer regulations once its scope of authority is properly limited. Employees whose positions are eliminated deserve to be treated with respect, and DOGE’s goal is to help support their transition into the private sector. The president can use existing laws to give them incentives for early retirement and to make voluntary severance payments to facilitate a graceful exit.

Conventional wisdom holds that statutory civil-service protections stop the president or even his political appointees from firing federal workers. The purpose of these protections is to protect employees from political retaliation. But the statute allows for ‘reductions in force’ that don’t target specific employees. The statute further empowers the president to ‘prescribe rules governing the competitive service.’ That power is broad. Previous presidents have used it to amend the civil service rules by executive order, and the Supreme Court has held—in Franklin v. Massachusetts (1992) and Collins v. Yellen (2021) that they weren’t constrained by the Administrative Procedures Act when they did so. With this authority, Mr. Trump can implement any number of ‘rules governing the competitive service’ that would curtail administrative overgrowth, from large-scale firings to relocation of federal agencies out of the Washington area. Requiring federal employees to come to the office five days a week would result in a wave of voluntary terminations that we welcome: If federal employees don’t want to show up, American taxpayers shouldn’t pay them for the Covid-era privilege of staying home.

Finally, we are focused on delivering cost savings for taxpayers. Skeptics question how much federal spending DOGE can tame through executive action alone. They point to the 1974 Impoundment Control Act, which stops the president from ceasing expenditures authorized by Congress. Mr. Trump has previously suggested this statute is unconstitutional, and we believe the current Supreme Court would likely side with him on this question. But even without relying on that view, DOGE will help end federal overspending by taking aim at the $500 billion plus in annual federal expenditures that are unauthorized by Congress or being used in ways that Congress never intended, from $535 million a year to the Corporation for Public Broadcasting and $1.5 billion for grants to international organizations to nearly $300 million to progressive groups like Planned Parenthood.

TWTW Comment: A promising start to a difficult task. Contrary to those who claim that in ending the Chevron Deference, judges will replace bureaucrats for expert judgement; it will be the lawmakers who will need to do so. That is where the Constitution places the authority and the requirement for such expertise. Congress will not be able to pass the buck on difficult decisions by deferring to bureaucrats.

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